编辑按：作者杜新系新华社广西分社社长、高级记者。从事新华社报道工作20多年，积极倡导以区域经济新闻视角关注中国与东盟合作。著有《中国脊梁》，主编《新华社记者看M战略》、《新华社记者看CAFTA》、《南宁之路》、《诚信中国》等专著。其中"关注发展极"、"关注关联经济"、"东盟热的冷思考"等观点文章引起社会关注。2007年9月，他研究思考多年的有关东盟及区域经济合作的著作《关联经济：一种新的财富视角》一书已由新华出版社出版。
导读
“蝴蝶效应”是指在一个动力系统中，初始条件下微小的变化能带动整个系统的长期的巨大的连锁反应。"蝴蝶效应"之所以令人着迷、令人激动、发人深省，不但在于其大胆的想像力和迷人的美学色彩，更在于其深刻的科学内涵和内在的哲学魅力。大湄公河次区域合作为地缘经济学提供了一份难得的"蝴蝶效应"案例。
类似深刻揭示关联规律的案例还有“两廊一圈”。由越南领导人和中国领导人共同商定的"两廊一圈"合作协定，被视为中国－东盟自由贸易区建设一个突破性的进展。以“泛北合作”为主的中国－东盟“一轴两翼”区域经济合作构想揭示着发展中国家在合作规律上卓有成效的进展。
第四章通过"湄公河的蝴蝶效应、两廊一圈的智慧视角、从极化效应到扩散效应、从贸易转移到贸易创造、从比较优势到后发优势"等文，从实证与反证的角度回答了关联理论关于发展中国家共同面临的世纪难题。
Chapter 4
：Substantial Evidence and Counterevidence
Introduction：
Butterfly effect is a
phrase meaning that small variations of the initial condition of a dynamical
system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. The
term “butterfly effect” is so attractive， exciting and profound，owing to the
unique imagination and aesthetic color of the term itself and to its rich
scientific and philosophic meanings as well. And Greater Mekong Subregion
Economic Cooperation Program (GMS) is a good case of “butterfly effect” in
geography economics.
There are other cases explaining relating
law，such as “Two Corridors and One Circle” strategy，which is a cooperation
agreement made by leaders of Vietnam and China and is regarded as a great step
forward in constructing CAFTA. And the cooperation framework of “One Axis and
Two Wings ”of China-ASEAN based on PBG Cooperation again gives evidence to the
advancement in finding cooperation laws for developing countries.
In this chapter，with papers such as
“Butterfly Effect of Mekong”，a Wise perspective of “Two Corridors and One
Circle”，the sections are contributed to give positive and negative evidences in
order to deal with the century problem proposed by the Relating Theory and
facing all developing countries.
实证一：湄公河的“蝴蝶效应”
摘要：地缘经济学里的“蝴蝶效应”；大湄公河次区域合作的地缘优势；中国积极参与大湄公河次区域合作；大湄公河次区域合作的关联机制；国际社会关注的“蝴蝶效应”；催生中国与东盟深化合作的“蝴蝶效应”。
延伸阅读>>>>
Evidence One：“Butterfly
Effect of Mekong River”
Abstract：In this section the following topics are discussed：the
“butterfly effect” in geography economics；the geographic advantage of
GMS；China’s positive participation in GMS；the relating mechanism in GMS；the
“butterfly effect” concerned by international society；and creation of the
“butterfly effect” in further cooperation between China and
ASEAN.
实证二：“两廊一圈”的智慧视角
摘要：“两廊一圈”的越南构想；“两廊一圈”的越南视角；“两廊一圈”的越南动态；“两廊一圈”的中国视野；“两廊一圈”与“泛北合作”的关联视角。 延伸阅读>>>>
Evidence Two： the
Wise View of “Two Corridors and One Circle”
Abstract：The following articles will be presented to readers in this
section：the Vietnam’s Construction framework of “Two Corridors and One Circle”
concerning Vietnam；Seeing “Two Corridors and One Circle” strategy from the
perspective of Vietnam；the present status of “Two Corridors and One Circle” in
Vietnam；Seeing “Two Corridors and One Circle” strategy from China’s
perspective；and the relating perspective of “Two Corridors and One Circle” and
PBG Programs.
实证三：从极化效应到扩散效应
摘要：从“东糖西移”到“东桑西移”；产业西移，漂亮的软着陆；农业关联产业转移凸显扩散效应；全新的循环生态农业模式；农业产业转移，依然漂亮地向明天延续。 延伸阅读>>>>
Evidence Three：From
Polarization Effect to Diffusion Effect
Abstract：The main topics of this section are：from “the western move of
eastern sugar industry” to “the western move of eastern silkworm industry”；the
western move of industry finding its sound environment；diffusion effect shown in
the industry diversion relating to agriculture；a brand-new agriculture pattern
of circulation ecology；agriculture industry diversion extending well to
tomorrow.
实证四：从贸易转移到贸易创造
摘要：中国—东盟合作将面临什么样的贸易效应？发展中国家后来居上的必由之路。 延伸阅读>>>>
Evidence Four：From
Trade Diversion to Trade Creation
Abstract：What
trade effect is facing China-ASEAN cooperation? What is the only way for
late-development for developing countries? - These are the questions discussed
in this section
.
实证五：中国—东盟农业合作：从比较优势到后发优势
摘要：中国农业产业扩散效应给中国—东盟合作的启示；中国企业寻找与东盟农业的关联之道；关联昭示：出路在于体系同构但产业互补。 延伸阅读>>>>
Evidence
Five：Agricultural Cooperation of China-ASEAN：from Comparative Advantage to
Late-Development Advantage
Abstract：In this section，the author concentrates on three subjects：the
revelation of China-ASEAN cooperation given by the diffusion effect of Chinese
agriculture industry，the approach for Chinese enterprises to be related to ASEAN
agriculture，and a relating suggestion：the way out relying on co-construction of
system and industry mutual help at the same time.
反证篇：关联失误震塌巴林金融大厦
摘要：规律不容漠视，历史不能忘记。关联规律提醒我们，财富既有着正向的乘法效应与后发效应，也有着负向的除法效应及遏制效应，越是在财富的金字塔之上，人间的悲喜剧越是演绎得淋漓尽致，譬如巴林金融大厦的坍塌——关联效应：从个人失误到银行倒闭；关联失误：从最小的关联交易开始；尼克·里森自白：我是如何弄垮巴林银行的；巴林悲剧：有多少关联教训可以汲取。 延伸阅读>>>>
Counterevidence：the Misplay of Relating Brought down Barings Financial
World
Abstract：Laws can’t be neglected and history can’t be forgotten.
Relating law reminds us that wealth has its positive multiplicative effect and
late-effect；on the other hand，it also has negative division effect and
controlling effect. The higher is a person on the pyramid of wealth，the more
dramatic life of ups-and-downs may he experiences. The best example is the down
of Barings financial world，which explains well the relating effect：an
individual’s mistake leads to the bankruptcy of a bank；the relating misplay
always begins at the smallest relating trade. Also in this section，Nick Leeson’s
confession is presented：How I brought down Barings Bank，which makes us
thinking：how many relating lessons we can draw from the Barings
tragedy.
中英双文:《关联经济》第一章 世纪命题
关联五问
Relating Economy Chapter 1: Five
Centennial Questions of Relating Economy
中英双文:《关联经济》第二章 发现新加坡
Relating Economy
Chapter 2: Discovering Singapore
中英双文:《关联经济》第三章 关联经济原理
Relating
Economy Chapter 3: The Theory of Relating
Economy
更多内容，欢迎访问“读书”栏目
（全文见《关联经济：一种新的财富视角》，杜新著，新华出版社，2007年9月。）
